USA-TALIBAN BILATERAL DEAL WITH MULTILATERAL CONSEQUENCES

India has always been a supporter of the democratically elected Afghan Government. India has worked consistently for the development of Afghanistan and the prosperity of its people. Apart from strategic importance of Afghanistan in Geo-political world , India has always striven for peace in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a link to south Asia for trade. Taliban , which is the terrorist organisation with UN sanctions has always created violence in Afghan soil to grab the political power . India has always opposed the Taliban from the days of conflict in Afghanistan. 

          Taliban proved to be a deadly enemy of India when the IC-814 was hijacked by the terrorists supported by Taliban. India had to release Masood Azhar which again proved to be a loss of India when Masood Azhar led JeM and LeT groups attacked India in 2001 and thereafter also with recent one being the Pulwama attack. India’s stand is that “terror and talks cannot go together” and India is still consistent on that. But the recent developments in Afghanistan has changed the Geo-political scenario. The US-TALIBAN peace agreement has put up several questions about the future of Afghanistan. 

The deal signed on 29 February in Doha has listed several points to attain peace and for achieving political settlement in Afghanistan. Some of the points are : 

• prevent the use of the soil of Afghanistan by any group or individual against the security of the United States and its allies. 
• withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan.
• A permanent and comprehensive ceasefire will be an item on the agenda of the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations.

The deal hasn’t mentioned specifically the allies of USA as well as who will be the participants of intra-Afghan Dialogue. The current scenario in Afghanistan is that the Abdullah who is the main rival of Ashraf Ghani do not recognize him as president because Abdullah smells foul play in election procedure. So before the intra Afghan dialogue this issue has to get settled . The deal then adds that Taliban will not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including al-Qa’ida, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies. The deal has not added ISIS,  LeT , JeM and other terror groups which poses a serious threat for India’s security. The deal says that ” The obligations of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban in this agreement apply in areas under their control until the formation of the new post-settlement Afghan Islamic government as determined by the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiation”. So this may meant that Taliban will not be responsible if some attack happens on the territory outside the Taliban control. Recent attack in Kabul proves this. So the first thing is that how much trustworthy is Taliban for the USA. 

         The USA in another agreement with The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan says that USA will conduct military operations in Afghanistan with the consent of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in order to disrupt and degrade efforts by al-Qa’ida, ISIS-K, and other international terrorist groups or individuals to carry out attacks against the United States or its allies.  In this agreement too , USA has not specified it’s allies. India will watch this situation with utmost care because India has invested more than 3 Bn USD in the infrastructure development, hydro power projects , roads construction , education , health and sports sector etc. India also trains the Afghan soldiers as well their diplomats in Indian soil. With Taliban holding power in Afghanistan, New Delhi will be cautious about the safety of Indian Embassies , its officials as well as India diaspora in Afghanistan. India will also be cautious about the training of terror groups in Afghan soil sponsored by our next door enemy.

       To conclude , we have to accept that peace in Afghan soil depends on the further action of Taliban if USA completely withdraws itself after 14 months. A regional competition may arise between China , Pakistan India and Russia to assert influence over Afghanistan after USA withdrawal.USA should not let Pakistan to exploit Afghan soil against India. USA should stay in Afghanistan and should also observe the intra Afghan Negotiations unless and until a peaceful political settlement is reached which is accepted by all . The international community should continue its financial , technological , military and humanitarian support to Afghanistan until peace is restored.